INDIA INTELLIGENCE REPORT

 

NEWS ANALYSIS

Arms for Nepal


India
is unlikely to resume arms supply unless Nepal does something concrete to restore democracy

What is India News Service
28 April  2005

Has India agreed to resume arms supply to Nepal? The Indian media had reported that it had, but later developments indicate that the Indian government has only spoken of a conditional resumption. Many observers thought India had agreed to resume supply, but done a U-turn under Left pressure.

The situation, as of today, is that Indian supply of arms to Nepal will not commence till King Gyanendra is seen as taking the first ‘‘tangible steps’’ to relax emergency measures in the kingdom. India is upset now that a day after the king promised to respond to India’s concerns on the suspension of democracy in that country, it went and arrested a former prime minister on corruption charges.

While there are “many levers” that can be used against Nepal it has not used any, India said on Thursday. For, it wanted the crisis in the Himalayan Kingdom resolved in a friendly manner.

External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh told the Rajya Sabha, “Military aid is constantly under review and will continue to remain under review.''

As soon as news came of the arrest of Sher Singh Deuba's arrest, India deplored the action. “It is distressing that soon after the King met the Prime Minister promising to unwind emergency and release political prisoners, this was done. For three months the situation in Nepal has deteriorated rapidly. It is the firm belief of the Government of India that constitutional monarchy and democracy should co-exist,'' Natwar Singh said.

India enjoys unique relations with Nepal, whose 60 lakh citizens work in this country without passports. Nepal is the only Hindu kingdom in the world. Nepal’s security depends heavily on its relationship with India, which surrounds nearly all its territory.

Nepal enjoys an open and unregulated border with Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

In 1950 India and Nepal initiated their intertwined relationship with the Treaty of Peace and Friendship and accompanying letters that defined security relations between the two countries. The 1950 treaty and letters stated that "neither government shall tolerate any threat to the security of the other by a foreign aggressor" and obligated both sides "to inform each other of any serious friction or misunderstanding with any neighboring state likely to cause any breach in the friendly relations subsisting between the two governments.

 
Concerned over increasing crime-related incidents along the border, Nepal and India have agreed to mobilise special security personnel in sensitive areas. This was decided during talks between security officials from the two countries who met in Janakpur.


When Prime Minister Manmohan and Natwar Singh met Gyanendra recently in Jakarta, the Nepal king promised to lift political censorship, release political prisoners and allow Indian TV channels to be beamed in Nepal. He also mentioned “certain areas'' where Nepal needed help.

The King indicated to the Indian leadership in Jakarta that he would not extend the state of emergency after April 30 all over Nepal but confine these measures only to Maoist strongholds.

Gyanendra, who is now returning from his tour of China and Singapore, is also expected to cobble together a pro-royalist government under Kirti Nidhi Bishta, vice-chairman of the Council of Ministers.

New Delhi is now debating whether military supplies should be resumed if the King does carry out these changes. For now, officials say New Delhi will monitor the situation closely since the King’s administration continues to target leaders of the Opposition and student bodies.

‘‘Despite pressure from the armed forces, New Delhi is in no hurry to supply weapons to Nepal until Gyanendra takes tangible and not cosmetic steps,’’ a senior official told The Indian Express.

The King’s meeting with Natwar Singh did give rise to some confusion.

Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and Joint Secretary (Nepal) were in Bhutan during the Jakarta meeting and even Indian Ambassador to Nepal, Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, was unaware of any change in New Delhi’s stand.

Noticing media reports in Kathmandu, Mukherjee even made a call to Jakarta to check whether India had decided to resume arms supply. He was told that the decision depended on how events unfolded in Nepal. To add to the confusion, there was no record of what was exactly said at Natwar Singh’s meeting with Gyanendra. Apparently, no notes were taken down.

According to sources, the leadership of mainstream political parties will continue to be targeted by the Royal Commission on Control of Corruption but media censorship may go to address one of the major concerns of the international community.

"In the absence of a democratic, multiparty alternative in Nepal, a Maoist takeover is likely and this is not something that the international community, including India, will like," said Ravi Nair, director of the South Asia Human Rights Documentation Center.

India and Nepal relations are close, but fraught with all the tensions that may be expected between a big country and a small country. But they share a religion, largely non-conflicting ways of life, and value their relationship deeply. They also jointly face the Maoist threat, which threatens to overthrow established ways of governance. Thus it makes sense for them to do everything possible to keep their relationship going on amiable terms.






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