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NEWS ANALYSIS


Time to redefine ties with Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi is arriving at a time when India is keen to change its equation from one of aid receiver to business partner

What is India News Service
28 April  2005
Japan’s Prime Minister Junchiro Koizumi is arriving in India today (28 April) on an official visit. He will begin talks with Indian leaders tomorrow. 

Koizumi's visit follows the India visit of China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in the first week of April. This month is turning out very important for India’s relations with East Asia.

India and Japan plan to sign a joint statement and at least eight other agreements during Koizumi's three-day visit, Japanese Ambassador Yasukuni Enoki told reporters earlier in the week.

The two countries are expected to reiterate support for each other's pursuit for permanent seats on the UN Security Council. Brazil, Germany, Japan and India have launched a joint bid for the Council.

Japan has hardly any investment in India, save for a joint venture with Suzuki. Maruti, incidentally, has been a very successful joint venture. It unveiled its 5 millionth car in India a day ahead of Koizumi's visit.

Japan's importance to India stems not from trade, but aid. While economic assistance to Delhi has increased, trade and investment remain stubbornly small. To convert Japan from a donor to business partner, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Koizumi on the sidelines of the 10th summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Laos.

The plan to launch an Indo-Japan Trade Council should be seen in this context.

Clearly, India is redefining its relations with not just its neighbours but with countries farther away.

The global strategic scene is passing through interesting times. The global strategic fulcrum in terms of political and economic power has shifted to Asia, undoubtedly, China as the major Asian power and the two other rising powers, namely, Japan and India, will increasingly figure in the global strategic calculus. 

In the past, Japan has criticised India's protectionist economic policies and its nuclear stance. Investors have been discouraged by social and political instability in South Asia. They were also deterred by complex and restrictive foreign capital laws and red-tapism in India. Some analysts have argued that Japanese investors shunned India because of fears for the security of their investments due to India-Pakistan rivalry. They preferred China to India.

The nuclear explosions of 1998 were a further dampener to bilateral relations. That year, unprecedented proliferation in nuclear and missile technologies took place both in South Asia and the Korean peninsula. The South Asian nuclear explosions evoked a sharp response from Japan, the only country to have suffered atomic bombing. A shocked Japan imposed economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan and offered to mediate on the Kashmir dispute. Some believe that a lack of multi-faceted economic ties between the two countries contributed to Japanese over-reaction. 

Efforts to normalise relations began in January, 1999. High-level contacts were started by the visit of Jaswant Singh, the then External Affairs Minister, in November that year. The first ever visit by an Indian defence minister took place in January 2000, when it was agreed to institute a bilateral security dialogue and maintain regular defence exchanges. Thus began a process of interaction between the security communities of the two countries.

Amongst the three Asian powers, it can be said that political synergy only exists between Japan and India and there has been no record of any animosity or military turbulence. China and India relations do carry a historical baggage of conflict. Similarly Japan and China too share such a conflictual record. Japan-China relations are headed towards increasing strategic concerns about China as evidenced by contemporary developments. 

It is strange that while the Indian establishment and Indian media were hyped-up in the run-up to the Chinese Prime Minister’s visit, there is no similar excitement on the forthcoming visit of the Japanese prime Minister. India has to wake up to the significant strategic possibilities that Japan-India strategic cooperation offers.

Respective national security interests of both Japan and India dictate the over-riding imperative of close strategic cooperation between the two nations.

It also needs to be noted that Japan-India strategic cooperation is one such strategic relationship which does not raise frowns either from United States or Russia. In the China context, strategist Subhash Kapila said: “The raison d 'etre is not to from military alliances and ring China and put it under siege. Strategic cooperation between countries like Japan and India would ensure that China does not run wild in Asia Pacific and that it would exercise caution and restraint before it embarks on any misadventures or political coercion”. 

The forthcoming visit by Japan’s Prime minister would be important in giving indications as to how far along this route Japan wants to travel. At this juncture, the compulsions for a proximate strategic cooperation with India should weigh more heavily with Japan. 

India too, can ill-ignore its own compulsions especially, after the muted Chinese responses to India’s strategic aspirations.

Noteworthy is the fact that during the Chinese Prime Minister's visit, China ruled out Japan’s permanent membership of United Nations Security Council. China also explicitly or implicitly did not support India’s candidature.

With both Japan and India coordinating their moves in this direction, it would be interesting to see what the Japanese Prime Minister has to say on the subject. 

If both Japan and India value the imperatives for strategic cooperation, then as a follow-up they must also recognise that greater political synergy is called for from the political leadership of both countries. 

That Japan seeks to establish a new partnership with India and recognises India as one of the major countries of Asia and international politics stands publicly articulated by the new Japanese Ambassador to India. 

Firstly, China itself at some stage could face India with the stark choice of either choosing China or Japan in terms of the relationships in East Asia. 

Secondly, the current Indian government is being dominated by the Indian communist parties who are a strong pressure group in favour of China. 

Thirdly, the burgeoning trade between China and India may be an overwhelming determinant in favour of China. Japan’s record in promotion of trade and investments in India has not been encouraging. 

Japan, therefore, would need to transcend all these three factors with some dramatic initiatives during the Japanese Prime Minister’s visit—dramatic initiatives which could lay the groundwork or pave the way for the emergence of a viable strategic cooperation between Japan and India. 

The twenty-first century is likely to witness tectonic shifts in global power relationships with specific reference to the Asia Pacific. China in both subtle and direct ways challenges United States unilateralism and American dominance in East Asia. It would also witness the emergence of Japan and India as rising powers of consequence figuring in the Asia-Pacific strategic calculus. 

Without getting drawn into a United States-China strategic confrontation, countries like Japan and India in proximate strategic cooperation could hopefully provide a necessary counter-ballast which could stimulate the prevailing of wiser counsels for ensuring Asia-Pacific peace and stability. 


Japan's Prime Minister Visits India End-April 2005:A perspective Analysis, Saag
http://www.saag.org//papers14/paper1343.html

Japan courts India as China's clout grows, Indian Express
http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=45578

Indo-Japan Forum to be launched during Koizumi's visit, Deepika Global
www.deepikaglobal.com/ENG3_sub.asp?ccode=ENG3&newscode=100883

Japanese Prime Minister coming today, The Hindu
www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/000200504281001.htm

Japan-India Relations: Willing donor, reluctant business partner, Asian Affairs
http://asianaffairs.com/jan2005/japan_india.htm