Washington’s regional allies are also worried that the Shia majority government in Baghdad may use the arms against the ethnic Sunnis and this is perhaps also stopping the US from going all out to arm the Iraqis. This is the reason for US President George Bush’s new plan calling for a greater role for the Sunnis in administration and the government. While well intentioned, this objective does not meet much acceptance with the Shia or Kurds who flank the land-locked and resource-deficit Sunni population and this is the reason for al-Faisal’s skeptical statement about Iraqis accomplishing the objectives themselves.

Riyadh has also formed a regional coalition including Egypt and Jordan to counter Iranian meddling in Iraq. It has also alerted some regiments to move into Iraq very quickly if the sectarian violence becomes uncontrollable but it is unclear what the objectives of the troops will be. If they invade Iraq to protect the Sunnis, the Tehran and Syria is sure to respond in kind to protect the Shia population. If the enter Iraq as part of a larger mandate for peacekeeping then other nations may also join in but the charter of this deployment will take months if not years to develop. Any trouble from the Kurds in the North will automatically invite the Turks to enter the fray to secure their Kurd majority areas.

In parallel, Riyadh is also seeking Washington’s support to produce a “regional initiative” in cooperation with the Arab League to stabilize Iraq by disrupting Tehran’s alleged links with the administration in Baghdad. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also written to the Saudi Arabia King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz about his nation’s promised support to resolve the Iraqi turmoil. Amid increasing reports talking about a {US-Israel plan to attack Iranian nuclear, defense, and economic targets in wide-ranging pattern Israel Plans to Strike Iran, Ahmadinejad has also reportedly asked Abdullah to facilitate better relations with Washington. Despite Riyadh’s opposition to Tehran influence in Iraq and its guarded hostility to Shia domination of Muslims, it is also opposed the proposed military plans to attack Iran.

Tehran also seems to be anticipating an attack and is gearing its forces into a missile exercise thereby putting Tel Aviv and Washington on notice on what it intends to do in case of an attack. It has also been vocal to rubbish the UNSC resolution imposing limited non-military sanctions on it while drummed up its rhetoric on its nuclear program. While any nation is entitled to defend itself from aggression, it is frustrating to see Ahmadinejad ratcheting up tensions in a brinkmanship game that threatens to run the whole region and global economy into major crisis. Fortunately, the Iranian polity, which is more pluralistic and intelligent than most nations in the region, has taken notice and seems to be resigned to sacrificing Ahmadinejad to protect the larger interests of the nation. Over 290 members of parliament (MPs), including 150 of Ahmadinejad’s right-wing supporters, signed a letter criticizing his disastrous economic policy that has runaway inflation and unemployment; foreign policy that has brought another US aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf, a distribution of Patriot anti-missile missiles to regional enemies, and several squadron of fighter jets to Turkey, and a threat of war; and sharp international division of the Muslim community on sectarian lines. The voter base in Iran also penalized Ahmadinejad by electing candidates of moderate political rival Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to the Assembly of Experts in preference to hand-picked candidates of Ahmadinejad. Further, his lack of attention to the decrepit and near bankrupt processing facilities thus negating his promise to share oil revenues with the population has also angered many who want to take advantage of their natural resources for growth just as Venezuelans are.

The success of the new Bush plan will depend on these developments in Iran. If Washington increases the pitch, Ahmadinejad will exploit it to deepen his shallow support. If Israel gets too involved, at least overtly, he will be able to unify the Arabs under his banner. On the other hand, if Washington empowers the Saudi-led coalition and the Arab League to be more forceful and take more leadership, they may at worst reign in Ahmadinejad and at best convince Iranian leadership to change their President.