India Intelligence Report

 

 

   Lebanese Political Crisis and West Asia

  The resignation of 5 Shiite Ministers from the Lebanon Government increased regional tensions across sectarian and religious lines and the US Government (USG) applauded an Argentinean court branding the Hezbollah “global nexus of terrorism.”
 

 

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The resignation of 5 Shiite Ministers from the Lebanon Government increased regional tensions across sectarian and religious lines and the US Government (USG) applauded an Argentinean court branding the Hezbollah “global nexus of terrorism.” The US could hide its glee when the Argentine court former asked that former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and eight others be produced for the July 18, 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center.

Emboldened by the 34 day war with Israel , Hezbollah has been demanding increased influence in governance and the West-supported Prime Minister Fuad Saniora had been resisting such demands. Following the resignation of the 5 Ministers, Saniora has rejected the resignations thereby remaining in power. Four days of dialogue has not led to any understanding and talks collapsed as Hezbollah refused to drop its demands for a veto in policy-making.

Seeing that its protégé destabilized, now globally accepted as a terrorist group, the USG was quick to pin the label on Iran and Syria accusing them of destabilizing the region by sponsoring the Hezbollah. They also accuse them of destabilizing Iraq and fanning sectarian violence by instigating the Shia against the Sunnis, a charge that both deny. Strangely, US President George Bush’s closest friend and ally, supporting this stance is British Prime Minister Tony Blair who said that the only solution is to involve these countries to find a regional solution. The Iraq study group, led by former US Secretary of State James Baker, also seems to be suggesting, among other things, an internationally-sponsored regional truce conference involving regional players.

Hence, the biggest question is whether this bring the US and Iran together? The major stumbling block is their perception of Israel where they have polarized views. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been a vocal critic of Israel often challenging well-accepted notions of victimization of Jews under the Nazis and using uncharitable words for the Jewish state. Moreover, his support for Hamas has destroyed whatever peace that the Palestinian and Israelis have managed to muster. Further, his recalcitrant positions on their controversial nuclear program sparked by circumstantial evidence linking his nation to disgrace Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan and association with anti-US world leaders such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and former Cuban President Fidel Castro has alienated the nations even more. But Iranian officials have gone to lengths to applaud the electoral victory of the Democrats and even suggested that they will help on Iraq if asked by the USG. However, Bush firmly rejected Blair’s suggestion insisting that Iran stop its enrichment, give up its support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and stop supporting terror groups.

The issue of Israel seemed settled with the peace process only to be destroyed by an emboldened Hamas which has consistently refused to accept Israel’s right to exist, honor former agreements, and eschew violence. Israel ’s aggressive and punitive action against rocket attacks from Gaza has unfortunately not helped matters any. While Tel Aviv’s anger is justifiable, its methods may not be necessarily be acceptable to most. Unnecessary death of children and women by errant artillery or air-dropped bombs is hardening Palestinian positions closer to hard-line Hamas positions and away from moderate Fattah leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Coincidentally, the Democratic win in the US , Blair’s transformation, Baker-led Study Group’s suggestion of a regional dialogue, and most importantly a possible new US-educated professor as Palestinian Prime Minister (Mohammed Shabir) may yet provide a window of opportunity. Will Bush, Ahmadinejad, Israeli President Ehud Olmert, Hamas, and Hezbollah swallow their egos and grab this chance to bring peace to one of the most dangerous regions in the world.