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In a surprising diplomatic breakthrough, China and the US said that North Korea (NK) has agreed to rejoin the 6-nation nuclear disarmament tasks 3 weeks after its first nuclear test and an exchange of bellicose statements exacerbated by confusing news reports. Apparently, China hosted an unpublicized three-way discussion in Beijing between the US , China , and NK in a government guesthouse where the decision to resume 6-way discussions was reached.
Marking the first positive development to ease tensions with US and Japan promising crippling sanctions with China opposing escalation and Russia and South Korea caught in the middle, it shows a high level of maturity of US-China inter-working over the issue and have had calibrated responses on key issues. For instance, both nations have categorically rejected the NK assertion that it is now a nuclear power. While this was a major hurdle, the worse ones are yet to come.
NK would undoubtedly insist on US fulfilling the hastily signed and much-criticized agreement that promised financial and technology aid and lowering of war rhetoric. The US is rightfully bound to insist on unconditional capping and roll back of nuclear programs. If the US appears to capitulate and agrees to terms by NK in exchange for the rollback, it will send the wrong signal to other nations such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Venezuela that the US will forgive proliferating nations with diplomatic and economically largesse. Worse, it may even inspire more such actors.
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Instead, the US has to make a side-bar agreement that it will lower the war rhetoric and comply with its obligations while insisting that NK make an unconditional and public rollback. It is obvious that economic and diplomatic isolation is hurting NK but it is not right to push it to a corner where it has no hope for redemption. This is precisely the situation that drove Iran to nuclear weapons and is pushing Venezuela into insane animosity against the US . The US’s punishing and unforgiving diplomatic behavior makes it look like an imperial power in the eyes of even moderates and can further estrange African, Asian, and South and Central American nations.
From a NK point of view, November elections of a very unpopular President will drive the US to make concessions without compromising its strategic aim of a non-Nuclear Pyongyang . Faced by political assault on diplomatic failures and the uncompromising Iraq situation, US President George Bush has to show success to with NK to claim victory that his hawkish policy of containment and curtailment is working. However, Pyongyang cannot read too much into such nuances as the American population will rapidly unite driving their lawmakers into harsher postures if Bush can sell an external danger. Bereft of deep global knowledge, Americans tend to believe their President, however unpopular, of an external danger and will rally quickly to support his moves. This is precisely why Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s hate campaign against Bush has hardly won any sympathizers.
However, with the stand-off between the China-South Korea combine against US-Japan positions becoming more apparent, Russia may be the tie-breaker. While it must insist that the US lower its war rhetoric, it must also not send mixed signals to NK. It must firmly demand a rollback of its nuclear program while insisting that the US honor its bilateral commitments.
If the 6 nation coalition does nothing, Japan and possibly North Korean may also become nuclear weapons states with US blessing which will invite retaliatory escalation of arming by China and Russia . A Chinese investment in nuclear weapons will warrant an Indian response which will then invite a Pakistani response. It will set back confidence building measures between India and China and risk further proliferation of weapons from a cash-starved Pakistan
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