India Intelligence Report

 

 

   Manmohan in Damage Control Mode

  Trying not to get dragged into the controversy over the quality of evidence on the 7/11 Mumbai blasts, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asserted that India had “credible evidence” and the joint mechanism with Pakistan was a “trial and experiment.”
 

 

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Trying not to get dragged into the controversy over the quality of evidence on the 7/11 Mumbai blasts, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asserted that India had “credible evidence” and the joint mechanism with Pakistan was a “trial and experiment.” Singh refused to be dragged into agreeing or disagreeing with either his National Security Adviser M. K Narayanan or Home Secretary V K Duggal but said that he believed Pakistan’s involvement in the Mumbai blast was a fact and refused to use the same words of either—hence it is unclear what the difference is between “clinching evidence,” “solid evidence,” and “credible evidence.” At the same time, he also reiterated that India was “not going to war with Pakistan .”

Pakistan also seemed very willing to pursue this experiment of joint mechanism to fight terror and promised to provide proposals when the Foreign Secretaries would meet in November. Pakistan Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri told a Pakistani newspaper that his nation wanted “Additional Foreign Secretaries” to head an oversight panel and would include “two relevant people from each side.”

Narayanan had indicated that India wanted a “two-tier mechanism” but it is not clear what that really meant. However, there seems to have been some back-channel discussions between the nations indicating that the modalities of working may be worked out fairly quickly. But there is already sign of frustration showing in security establishments. Former Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee (who became the Minister of External Affairs) and Narayanan had said that India would reconsider the joint mechanism if Pakistan continues to deny and refute every bit of evidence and is not cooperative. In fact, Mukherjee said that the success of the joint mechanism would depend on the information India got from Pakistan in response to what it supplies Islamabad . Pakistan says that the responsibility need to be shared by both sides and the onus is not one-sided.

Adding to this internal churn, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf said that he will not accept India’s “domination” of the region and asked India to get over its Pakistan “phobia” and set the “21” places “where violence continues” before blaming his nation. Known for his tactical brilliance but strategic short-sightedness, it looks like Musharraf wanted to heap pressure on the Indian Government that after sticking its neck out would also try making the mechanism work at whatever cost. Once again, Musharraf is underestimating the political and strategic resilience of the nation where beneath the chaotic surface there is deep consensus on national issues and even the communists who are notionally opposed to positive developments agree with others. India should demonstrate its internal consensus by sending a balanced individual from the Opposition to be part of negotiations and therefore send a clear message that the nation cannot be divided.

Writing about Kargil, a previous fiasco sponsored by Musharraf, former aide to US President Bill Clinton on South Asian affairs Bruce Riedel wrote quoting former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that Musharraf was the sponsor of the episode. While Musharraf has variously denied this, including in his much discredited auto-biography, the broad international conclusion is that the Army under Musharraf sponsored the episode with limited exposure or hidden material to Sharif