India Intelligence Report

 

 

   Softened North Korean Sanctions

  Facing severe opposition from China, the UN Security Council led by the US whittle down the sanctions targeted at North Korea (NK) as punishment for its nuclear test even as NK and Iran rejected the sanctions as discriminatory and “gangster-like.”
 

 

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Facing severe opposition from China, the UN Security Council led by the US whittle down the sanctions targeted at North Korea (NK) as punishment for its nuclear test even as NK and Iran rejected the sanctions as discriminatory and “gangster-like.” Despite intense pressure from the US , China is refusing to accede to stronger sanctions on its ally NK arguing that stronger sanctions will force the bankrupt nation further into a corner. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is traveling to Asia trying to convince and drive consensus between major players in the area.

The US wants tough sanctions against NK that would prevent export of technology, weapons, trade, cargo inspections, embargo on luxury goods, and travel restrictions on senior Government officials. China says that cargo inspections and travel restrictions is going too far and does not leave the door open for NK to return. Japan agrees with the US and South Korea agrees with China . A special area of concern is the export of narcotics, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and counterfeit US dollars out of NK to finance its nuclear and missile program at the cost of development and sustenance of its population. NK denies these charges but there is independent evidence to suggest that it is indulging in these activities. Some argue that even if a cargo inspection is implemented, the NK regime has built many mechanisms including underground tunnels to deserted islands and underground drifts that would take these goods behind inspection lines and render the inspection regime useless.

In any case, the US is piling a lot of the responsibility and requirements on China claiming that a Chinese support to sanctions will strongly discourage Pyongyang as Beijing literally hold NK together with its generous financial, agricultural, and military aid. However, the US has acknowledged that it does not want “open conflict” but is insistent on the embargo mechanism as it would also further its Proliferation Strategic Initiative (PSI). While China voted with the UNSC, it said that it will not implement the travel restrictions or the embargo requirement. This is despite US UN Representative Bolton’s assurance that an “overwhelming predominance of the inspections would take place in port or at land crossings” while not ruling out “authority to interdict on the high seas.”

Japan and Australia promised to enforce sanctions immediately and institute harsher measures on their own while South Korea has promised to adhere to the resolution but refused to say how and has also has provided its northern cousins with aid.

Justifying its test, NK says that its tests were an insurance against a US invasion and refuses to accept US assurances that it does not plan military action. Firstly, its forces are stretched thin across Iraq and Afghanistan . Secondly, its military is suffering from a major deficiency in operational material and is in the process of cannibalizing and sequestering equipment from non-frontline units. Thirdly, a large budget deficit will not make an invasion of NK financially feasible unless absolutely necessary. Fourthly, it faces immense opposition from China and Russia on a military action. Fifthly, the US will find that it will have almost no ally for an invasion of NK (including South Korea or Australia and Constitutionally Japan cannot deploy forces outside its borders). Sixthly, even a missile attack will leave the US open to retaliatory second strikes by NK and the risk will not acceptable to strategists.

However, the US Administration is determined on a hard-line course against NK rejecting senior Republican Senators’ suggestions of direct talks. The US is still smarting with a ridiculous deal signed by former President Jimmy Carter during the Bill Clinton Administration that remained only on paper and developed in the hope that the current regime will collapse. This time around Rice says that NK wants direct talks with the US to pin all blame on it and “isolate it” as the spoiler. Instead, Rice recommends that Beijing and Seoul use “real leverage” that they have to “put enormous pressure on North Korea ” to return to the 6-nations talks format. Rice is right to argue this point but must also create a set of carrot measures to achieve the ultimate return to talks, roll back of nuclear program, cessation of WMD proliferation, reduction of regional tensions, etc. At the same time, it should not encourage behavior to a point where countries wanting aid and support proliferate and break international law. Such an outcome will completely take out any incentive for nations like India which does not proliferate or break international laws but has not gotten any handout from any nation.

In the meanwhile, there is considerable confusion on whether NK did really detonate a nuclear bomb. Apart from the low yield arguments, the US has also said that its spy planes were unable to detect any radioactivity in the area that supposedly hosted the explosion. Indian scientists believe that the NK did explode a nuclear device but some analysts say that it is possible that the test failed to achieve intended results.