India Intelligence Report

 

 

SLMM Collapses, Ceasefire Dead as Civil War Looms

 

Sri Lanka moved ground troops following air force raids on a “humanitarian operation” to take control of a water reservoir in an ill-defined area but controlled by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) sparking the Tamils to declare the ceasefire dead.

 

 

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Sri Lanka moved ground troops following air force raids on a “humanitarian operation” to take control of a water reservoir in an ill-defined area but controlled by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) sparking the Tamils to declare the ceasefire dead. The Sri Lankan Government (SLG) justified its action saying that the LTTE is denying water to Sinhalese population downstream and that 100 children are sick from scarcity of water. While scores of LTTE cadre and civilians are stated to be dead in the air raid, the SLG insists that it is bombing only those places known to be occupied by the militants. Intelligence sources say that a senior LTTE ‘Commander’ of the Batticaloa region called ‘Col’ Bhanu has been injured in the air raid and no independent verification is available to confirm this claim.

A defense spokesperson said that the Army had moved within 10 minutes of the Mavil Aaru dam in Trincomalee but may take hours to secure the dam because of the mines and booby traps planted by the guerrillas but said they faced very little resistance so far. Highlighting the importance of this objective to SLG, the operation is being run by Major General Nanda Mallawarachchi who is the second in command and based out of Trincomalee. The LTTE warned that there will be “fierce resistance” and “serious consequences” if the Army moved further to open the sluice gates of the dam to release water to the 15000 families cultivating 30,000 acres of land further downstream. The LTTE closed the sluice gates on this dam on July 20 as a negotiating tool for secure water from the SLG for Muttu East and Eachchilampattu.

In a letter to the Scandinavian-staffed Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Head Major General Ulf Henricsson, the LTTE said that the continual aerial bombing and artillery attacks are akin to the Government’s declaration of war and wanted “the SLMM: to declare publicly that the ceasefire agreement is not holding any more.” Henricsson was aghast at the SLG methods saying that it is “definitely the wrong method” to get water. He conceded that the government and the LTTE had “more or less terminated the ceasefire agreement, through their actions.” The SLMM is also collapsing as the LTTE had refused to accept members of the EU as monitors since their respective nations had declared the group a terrorist organization and all three (Sweden, Denmark, and Finland) have quit the SLMM.

While the Government claimed a walkthrough up to a “10 minute walk” mark, latest reports suggest that at least 24 personnel of the Sri Lanka Army and Navy were in presumed LTTE reprisal. Instead of trying to take on a well-directed and armed attack force, the LTTE took the battle into the government territory by attacking the main Trincomalee Naval base by blasting an army bus and raining shells into the Navy base. Confusion and chaos reigned in the naval town amid continuing gun battle.

A Navy statement claimed that the LTTE was targeting a vessel carrying 854 unarmed soldiers on their way back to the base after completing home leave. It said that naval troops successfully repulsed the attack to navigate the vessel to safety which infuriated the LTTE to follow-up with indiscriminate shelling towards the base resulting in the death of eight sailors and injuries to several others. The Army also claimed that it destroyed 3 LTTE boats and damaged three others in the counter attack. The LTTE version was different claiming that the targeted vessel retreated urgently to international waters while its 36 shells destroyed a Dvora attack boat killing 8 troops. Another 16 troops were killed and several injured when a bus was carrying reinforcements to the Mavil Aaru front was blasted. The LTTE claims that their counter attack had stopped the Army advance into Tamil areas.

As the fighting escalates and a ceasefire mechanism that took so long to germinate and work collapses, civil war seems imminent. For India this would mean significant consequences such as the influx of refugees to Tamil Nadu, infusion of arms in rural Tamil Nadu, smuggling of essential supplies off Vedaranyam, etc.