India Intelligence Report

 

 

   Pak Warns of Nuclear War over Hot Pursuit

  Briefing journalists on a recent article in the Washington Post on the expansion of nuclear facilities, Pakistan Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said trivialized its contents and warned nuclear war if India pursues terrorists into Kashmir that it has occupied.
 

 

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Briefing journalists on a recent article in the Washington Post on the expansion of nuclear facilities, Pakistan Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said trivialized its contents and warned nuclear war if India pursues terrorists into Kashmir that it has occupied. Tasnim Aslam questioned the “need for the article” since “Pakistan is a nuclear weapons state” and that the coordinates of the Khushab and other facilities “are exchanged even with India under the 1988 agreement about ongoing nuclear facilities and installations.”

She acknowledged that Khushab was a nuclear weapons facility and not under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) but declined to provide “specific comments on Pakistan’s facilities, the details of the facilities, and programs in the centre.” While asserting that Pakistan does “not want nuclear or conventional arms race in the region,” she also accused India of being the “first to introduce nuclear weapons in the region” and “first to test nuclear weapons in this region.”

Aslam was very critical of unidentified reports from India saying that it was considering hot pursuit of terrorists and action against terrorist suspects and camps in Pakistan. Calling such thinking “irresponsible,” Aslam wondered whether India wanted a “nuclear war in this region” or “holocaust.” She warned that Pakistan will never “allow hot pursuit inside its territory” or in so-called “Azad Kashmir.” She reminded that even in 2001-2002 when India amassed troops in strike formations following the attack on the Parliament, the countries “had to return to the table to negotiate.” Stating that “is the option” open to the nations, Aslam reiterated that Pakistan wants “is pursuit of peace, we want the peace process to start, resume and we are willing to discuss all issues.”

Following the terrorist attack in Mumbai, India postponed the Foreign Secretaries level review of the composite dialogue process and no meeting was scheduled during the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) meeting in Dhaka later this month. Aslam said that Foreign Secretaries “would naturally be interacting” during that meet but it is not clear if this means interacting as part of the SAARC dialogue or furthering bilateral conversations.

Many so-called moderate observers in Pakistan seem to suggest that their country does not have so much control over the terrorists as everyone thinks and say that unless there is forward movement on discussions on Kashmir, the Government itself can do nothing. This is interesting summary since it is the Government’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) that is sponsoring, funding, training, coordinating, and directing operations within India and it is strange that suddenly the Government has no control over this entity. Often viewed as a state within a state, the ISI is indeed beyond control but it would be useful for the Government to acknowledge that it has no control over this renegade organization but it is sleight of hand to suggest that a “forward movement” on Kashmir would suddenly bring some leverage for the Government.

Ever since the nuclear tests, Pakistan has been using the bogey of a nuclear war to control Indian reaction to any terrorist activity within India. Several Army generals say that just like Kargil, there is space for a limited, intense, and controlled conventional war with Pakistan as they are not stupid enough to invite a complete annihilation of the nation. However, India needs to evaluate other measures to bring fruits of terrorism to bear on Pakistan. Relying on the US to keep Pakistan on leash is not reliable but is somewhat useful mechanism.

India has many options that it realizes but requires political will to implement. For example, it needs to improve intelligence by infiltrating Pakistan computer networks using cyber warfare methods. It should have the gumption to preempt attacks by controlling movements of suspected elements. It can strengthen anti-terror laws that will make the presence of Pakistani nationals in India without requisite permission an automatic terrorist offense punishable by life-sentence or death. Cancel free exchange of populations through bus services, flight services, consulates, licenses to export products such as sugar, etc.

India needs to make the Pakistan Government understand that it will not continue as if it is business as usual.