India Intelligence Report
 

   Anti-King Resolution Stalls

 

Nepal’s bid to pass an anti-King resolution stalled as disagreements within the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) on what should be included and what excluded. There is genuine fear in policy maker and opinion maker circles that the SPA may be on a witch-hunt course and if not tempered may spin out of control.

The SPA agenda seems to be driven by two distinct considerations. First, the politicians want to appear strong to stand up to the King. Second, the political parties want to placate the Maoist terrorists to bring peace to the nation. 

If the pretense to stand up to the King is dropped, then the first consideration is progressive and may even convince King Gnanendra to assume a more ceremonial and religious role than an administrative and political one. Gnanendra may yet get back some of the prestige lost over the last 4 years with assassinations, murders, tampering with democracy, high-handedness, and alienating most of the people in the world. 

The second consideration is the more disconcerting one for Nepal and India. First, the terrorists will not stop with subtle changes or modifications to the country’s constitution but would want major overhaul that will benefit their ultra-left agenda. Second, they will force retrograde economic policies on the country that could deepen the fiscal crisis in the nation. Third, they may impose conditions or stipulations on agreements between India and Nepal that may cause irritants in bilateral relations ranging from border to social disagreements. Fourth, the growth in prestige of Maoism in Nepal may encourage their Indian versions to aspire for similar status leading to an intensification of the Naxal movement. Fifth, the involvement of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Nepal should be further employed as a safe corridor between Afghanistan and South India can allow the transportation of armed guerillas, arms, ammunitions, bombs, and terrorism with impunity through Nepal and down the Naxal corridor.

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