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India Intelligence Report
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Pak in Top 10 Failed State List |
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The most significant pointer for India is the large drop by Pakistan from 34 last year to 9 this year and shown as more unstable than Liberia, Burundi, and Ethiopia. In other words, except for Sudan, Ethiopia, and Congo all other African nations are ranked higher than Pakistan making it worse off than sub-Saharan Africa. The ongoing civil war in
tribal Baloachistan, the meteoric rise of Pakistan
Taliban in Waziristan, the al Qaeda in the North West Front Province, Shia-Sunni sectarian strife in Karachi, inter-Sunni clash in Sindh, ongoing terrorist actives in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), unrest in Northern Areas are reasons why Pakistan has slipped so fast. The US Quadrennial Review talked extensively about nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of non-state actors and the obvious reference is to Pakistan. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has upped his public relations (PR) portraying himself as a strong leader in control of the country and weaponry who can stand up to the West. Either the West or terrorist elements do not buy this image building campaign. Al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri’s recent address calling Musharraf a traitor of Islam and calling for a rebellion against him is strong evidence that the PR campaign is not
working. The major question raised in this context is how India is planning to deal with a Pakistan that may fail and lose control of its nuclear and missile arsenal to terrorist elements. While al Qaeda will no doubt seek to gain control of some of them for use against Israel, EU, and the US, Kashmiri terrorists groups will want a fair share for use against India just as Chechen groups would want some against Russia and Uygurs for use against China. This is the angle that India needs to carefully monitor and develop options that will enable it to gain control of them if the Pakistan army were to fail against the terrorist or subversive elements or be overrun by them. |
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This report does not mean that Pakistan faces imminent failure. It just means that the risks are very high. In Pakistan’s case, the collateral damage in failure of state is very high and that is what India needs to guard against—the so-called “worst case scenario.” This is one case when India’s “credible minimum deterrence” strategy will not work. This paradigm is meant for use against recognized States who operate with a degree of responsibility and not against terrorist elements that do not care for their lives or those of innocent civilians. India needs to take the leadership to develop strategies along with Israel, EU, US, Russia, and China. One thought is states who own nuclear weapons, including non-acknowledged nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan, and Israel, develop a protocol that would implement a destruction or disarming methodology that will render these weapons unusable in case of a terrorist take over of the state or parts of its weaponry. A similar one can be developed by those who posses weapons of mass destruction. In parallel, India needs to enhance its satellite based spying operations to identify, monitor, and track suspected missile battery and nuclear weapons targets. Simultaneously, it should also develop offensive Network Centric Warfare software that can cripple communication mechanisms in case of an emergency granting security forces in India, Israel, EU, and the US enough time to take over these weapons.
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