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At the end of a two-day meeting of the
Asia Pacific Advisory Committee on
Influenza (APACI), AIIMS Department of
Medicine representative Randeep
Guleria speculated that the H5N1 virus
will die as the summer peaks. However,
he warned that it may resurge in the
winter and that a detailed
epidemiological study is necessary to
find out the reasons for the outbreak
in India. APACI Chairman Jane Jennings
said that originally H5N1 bird flu
virus spread with trade of infected
birds in unhealthy environments and
now it is through migratory birds.
After studying the pattern of the
spreading disease in the last few
months, Guleria speculated that the
virus had come to India from Europe.
He said that migratory birds probably
carried the disease from South East
Asia to Russia, which then spread to
Kazakhstan, Turkey, Europe, and
Nigeria. He did not explain how the
disease spread from France to Nigeria
skipping Algeria, Egypt, the Arabian
Peninsula, and sub-Saharan Africa and
showed up in Nigeria. It is also not
clear how Southern European countries
Greece and Italy reported incidents
before France and Germany. Jennings
pointed out that only a detailed
epidemiological study would show the
pattern. Meanwhile, the Indian
Railways has restarted its chicken
dishes that it had suspended with the
outbreak. While the poultry industry
has suffered large losses because of
the virus, maize farmers have been
collaterally impacted as 90% of the
produce in Northern Karnataka was used
in the preparation of chicken feed.
Despite collapsing prices by over 20%,
several thousands of tons of maize
have not takers.
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