Neighbors

• Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) seem to have agreed to resume direct unconditional talks next month in Switzerland. The announcement, brokered by the Norwegian Minister for International Development, brings some respite to spiraling violence in the island largely blamed on the LTTE. The violence from December 2005 has claimed 80 the lives security personnel. However, the resumption of talks means a cool down period in the island giving the parties a chance to focus on peace. The talks will primarily focus on the implementation modalities of the ceasefire that was unilaterally suspended by the LTTE in 2003 after six rounds of direct dialogue. The sticking points for the LTTE are the dismantling of paramilitaries in the east and the de-escalation of the high security northern region.  Meanwhile the inflow of refugees into Tamil Nadu from Sri Lanka increased adding to the 40,000 refugees count.

• Ahead of the IAEA special meeting this week, Iran seems to have softened its stand on the need for nuclear enrichment within Iran. Iran has unilaterally reopened seals at the Nantz facility claiming that this was research work aimed to achieving technology for civilian nuclear purposes. The West, armed with revelations of Iran clandestinely buying nuclear weapons technology from disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan, suspects that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb. Iran’s hard-line President’s calls for the destruction of Israel and the disparaging comments about Israeli people and the holocaust have deepened this suspicion. The nuclear issue has become a question of the country’s national pride and any attempts at coercion will only harden Iran’s position and Iran has not been shy of displaying this recalcitrance. Iran unilaterally suspended talks with the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) and has threatened to suspend all IAEA inspections if it is taken to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Russia and China have been advocating patience and diplomacy. The recent Russian offer for a joint venture in Russia to enrich uranium was proposed several months ago by the EU-3 but was dismissed by Iran. Now, with the pressure building up on the issue, Iran seems to be reconsidering this proposal; the Russians have already publicly stated that Iran has accepted this proposal.

• Spreading panic, hundreds of Maoist terrorists launched multiple coordinated attacks in a key Midwestern town bordering India in Nepal. The terrorists attacked banks, police stations, prisons, police training centers, and a Royal Nepal Army company in Nepalgunj often referred to as the second best fortified town after Katmandu. Four terrorists, two soldiers, a policeman, and a civilian (said to be Indian) are reported casualties in this incident. Despite Maoist attacks and threats and opposition boycott, King Gnanendra plans to hold district levels in Nepal on Feb 8. The seven party alliance seeking restoration of democracy has called for a “bundh” (shutdown) on Thursday.

World

• India firmly rejected United States (US) Ambassador to India David Mulford’s assertion that the Indo-US Nuclear deal is linked to how India votes in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) against Iran. The remarks attributed to the Ambassador repeated positions taken by US Congressman Tom Lantos when he was in India and during hearings in the US.  Congressman Lantos’s hard-line position was that if India does not support the US and the EU on blocking nuclear research and enrichment in Iran, the civilian nuclear deal couldn’t be ratified in the US Congress. The Ambassador further argued that the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group would also hesitate to make a one-time exception to India to overtly supply civilian technology to a non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty signatory. Indo-US negotiations on the military-civilian facility separation ran into serious problems with the US insisting that India include the fast breeder reactor (FBR) programs under IAEA supervision. The US position is that since Japan has agreed to include its FBR under the IAEA, they do not see why India should not. India has maintained that India is a non-signatory to the NPT and is also a de factor nuclear weapons state and therefore has a case distinctly different from that of Japan. Moreover, India was surprised that US should raise this issue so late in the negotiations. The timetable towards getting the deal through was before the US President George Bush visits India and this achieving this timeline seems impossible now. Mulford seems to distance himself from the statements attributed to him saying that it has been taken out of context.

• Over a million of the 3.5 million Palestinians voted to elect out of 700 plus candidates (with 80 odd women candidates) seeking a mandate fewer than 11 political parties and as independents for 132 Parliamentary seats. The terrorist group, Hamas, participated in elections for the first time. As a pre-cursor, it had dropped the “destruction of Israel” from its manifesto sparking speculation that it is softening its stance and wanting a diplomatic settlement. The United States had earlier said that it wanted Hamas, with over 33% of popular support, to participate. However, with opinion polls pointing to a Hamas victory, it balked and said it could not recognize a Government led by Hamas. Yaseer Arafat’s Fattah party, badly damaged by infighting and internal political squabbles in the Gaza strip, may still pull through but may need the support of Hamas to form a Government. Senior members of the Israeli Cabinet met with army commanders to discuss options in case of a Hamas victory that it calls a “ticking bomb.” Fattah party leader Mahmud Abbas said it has no qualms partnering with Hamas and reiterated its partnership with Israel. Although it does not recognize the Jewish state, Hamas said that it is willing to negotiate indirectly with Israel but is unwilling to give up its weapons.