Yet another unique feature of this deal is that it will automatically cease if India were to test a nuclear device. While India has unilaterally declared a moratorium on testing it has retained the right to test should the need arise. This may be if China, Pakistan, Iran, or the US resumes testing nuclear devices.
Given the testing data that China or the US have accumulated over the years, they can conduct soft tests using simulation and do not have to rely on physical tests. While Pakistan or Iran may test a nuclear device, they do so at the risk of being diplomatically, economically, and politically isolated even more than they already are. While the incentive is there for Iran to test, there is no incentive for Pakistan which is just about surviving as a nation. For Iran, it is a symbol of defiance and strength against the US which is seen as a major threat to its existence.
If this development should take place, global outcomes are unpredictable and India needs to evaluate its weapon inventory and threat perception and take strategic action as China did after March 1998. Despite the NCA going to effect in March 19, 1998, China refused to adhere to the contract it signed for not proliferating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and nuclear technology insisting that the US considerations be made on a case-by-case basis. Therefore, it decided to abandon the NCA but was admitted to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2004 thanks to deft negotiation and wheeling-dealing. The short lesson for India is to learn from China which places its national interest first based on pragmatic ground situation and not on out-dated ideological obsession or past experiences.
