The Government’s premier statistical body found that India has 41.1% population belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and not 52% as asserted by the Government wanting to create a vote-bank by granting them reservation in premier educational institutions. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) found that while there only a marginal increase in the population of scheduled castes (SCs) and scheduled tribes (STs) from 19.6 and 8.9 per cent in 1999-2000 to 19.7 and 8.4 per cent respectively in 2004-05, there is a sharp increase in the population of OBCs in the country. Controversially, the BP Mandal Commission had estimated this figure to be 52% without performing any statistically significant survey.
It is only in Puducherry (76.5%), Tamil Nadu (73.5%), Kerala (61.6%), Bihar (60.2%), Manipur (59.4%), and Uttar Pradesh (53%) that had a high percentage of OBCs over the 50% marker. It is not known whether the high percentages are due to an exodus of non-OBC population from these states due to discriminator policies or an increase in population.
The NSSO survey covering 7,999 villages and 4,602 urban blocks covering 79,306 households in rural areas and 45,374 households in urban areas shows a huge difference between urban and rural populations. In rural areas, NSSO found the OBC population at 43%, SCs at 21%, and STs at 10% while in urban areas, OBCs were at 36%, SCs at 15%, and STs at 3%. Further, given recent Supreme Court (SC) rulings barring creamy layer from inclusion in quotas, the figures qualifying for reservation must be much lower than what the Human Resources Development (HRD) Ministry claims.
With the NSSO asserting that their numbers to be “quite authentic and close to the realities” with the methodologies adopted “scientifically designed” so that the findings are “actual and realistic,” it will be hard for the HRD to contest the numbers.
