India is increasingly worried about conventional offensive well-orchestrated operations of a resurgent Taliban and their hold on the fight till broken with air raids and analysts say that these tactics bring back memories of their ascendance in early 1990s.
In the last year, there have been 52 suicide attacks, 36 incidents of kidnapping, 264 mine and 122 rocket attacks in Afghanistan and 2000 people have died in the last eight months alone. The Taliban no longer attacks with small bands in guerilla style but in bands of 70-150 armed with sophisticated assault rifles, mortars, and rockets. In some cases, the Taliban has taken over villages and imposed their parochial ideology before being evicted by Coalition Forces. The attacks have been concentrated in the Kandahar and Halmand provinces, their attacks have increased since the 4500 US troops were replaced by NATO forces. While defense officials expected an increase in attacks, they have been taken aback by the intensity and boldness of Taliban operations.
Counter-intelligence experts say that there are several reasons why this is so:
NATO Forces are defense oriented and do not have experience to proactively and
aggressively attack enemies especially ones engaged in guerilla warfare
With Pakistan not actively engaged in eliminating their revival, the Taliban has used Quetta as a base to reorganize, recruit, train, and plan
As in early 90s, increasing poppy cultivation has funded the Taliban’s revival and do not have to depend on suspicious funding from patrons in the House of Saud
Pakistan’s recent Agreement from home grown Taliban would mean a withdrawal of troops from Waziristan thereby providing space for this group to link up with their brethren from Afghanistan. This joining of forces would mean more intensive and regular attacks on coalition forces. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf dismisses this theory claiming that the Durand Line will be respected by the Pakistani Taliban because it is bound by the Jirga of tribal elders. Very few analysts agree with this assessment as the Pakistan Taliban has many al Qaeda cadres who have no allegiance to nation or tribes but only to a rabid interpretation of the Islam. They point out this just as 15 years ago where the withdrawal of Pakistani forces was necessary for the growth of the Taliban, the withdrawal of operations and troops will only result in providing it space for reorganize and join forces. While the US defense forces understand the outcome, political shortsightedness and active lobbying from Pakistan is coloring decision making in Washington to meet this threat.
Reports indicated that India is planning to warn the United Nations about this trend and not to overlook this concerted revival and the potentially dangerous trend.