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Tuesday, June 20, 2006

India Intelligence Report

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   Exports Up, So is Deficit

 

 

  • Exports up 35.31%, imports 27.04%

  • India has a trade deficit of $7.26 billion which will increase in future

  • Finance Ministry said that it was confident of maintaining a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP

According to the provisional trade data released by the commerce ministry, India’s merchandise export in May was 35.31% higher than previous year’s even as imports increased by 27.04%.

Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said the continued double digit 20 per cent-plus growth in the country’s merchandise exports for the third year in succession reflected, among other things, the growing global competitiveness of the Indian manufacturing sector.

  May

2006

May

2005

%
Exports 42492 31404 35.31%
Imports 59907 47155 27.04%

Amount in Crores (USD 1 = Rs.46)

During April-May, oil imports were valued at USD 8.34 billion or 31% higher than the oil imports of USD 7.58 million the previous year. Non-oil imports during the two-month period were estimated at USD 17.44 billion or 19% higher than the level of such imports of USD 14.65 billion in April-May 2005.

The Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) released final figures for April-May 2005-06 as USD 15.71 billion for exports and USD 22.97 billion for imports. This means that India has a trade deficit of $7.26 billion and if oil is excluded, there will be a trade surplus. Unfortunately, oil imports will only increase and with the way oil prices are going, the trade deficit numbers is bound to get worse.

However, despite the bad deficit figures of April, the Finance Ministry said that it was confident of maintaining a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP this year. Fiscal deficit was high at Rs 31,956 crores in April, constituting 21.5% of the budget estimates of Rs 1,48,686 crores for the whole year. The government is targeting to reduce fiscal deficit by at least 0.3% of GDP and revenue deficit by 0.5% of GDP. The target is to contain fiscal deficit at 3% and wipe out revenue deficit by 2008-09.


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