|
|
The US pledged protecting Israel from
Iran should diplomatic efforts to
negotiate an acceptable end to that
country’s controversial nuclear
program fail and the situation
escalated to a full fledged conflict.
Israel needed that assurance because
it was planning to repeat its 1981
operations that destroyed Iran’s
nuclear power plant in Osiraq.
However, things are very different
from 1981.
For one, analysts say that Iran has a
much more advanced missile arsenal
armed with conventional, biological,
chemical, and perhaps even nuclear
weapons. Second, its long war with
Iraq has hardened its armed forces and
is expected to fight better. Third,
the poor in the Islamic world sees
Western pressure on Iran more of a
Judaic-Christian vs. Islam thrust.
Fourth, as demonstrated by the Dutch
cartoons, Muslims are becoming
increasingly suspicious of Western
intentions and are looking for ways to
band together although this unity has
not come together to help Palestine.
Therefore, an Israeli action at this
point in time is likely to trigger off
a pan-Islamic call to arms although
most countries would like to stay off
such a conflict except through
diplomatic channels. This may
strengthen al Qaeda’s hand even more
and bring more recruits to target
Western, Israeli, and Indian targets.
The ongoing war in Afghanistan and
Iraq will be the primary casualties
and if American forces are not
augmented by other nations, increased
body bags may trigger support in the
US for the use of tactical or even
full-fledged nuclear weapons on Iran.
After all, the US does not want
another Vietnam in its history.
Alternatively, if the US were to lead
the attack against Iran, then the
unifying factor—anti-Jewish sentiment
will not come in to play. However, it
is not clear if the US has the
capacity to open another front in Iran
which has to be large scale aerial and
missile based bombing on nuclear
installations, missile batteries, and
Army targets. It is also not clear
whether the European allies will back
the US on Iran even though they are
opposed to the unilateral war in Iraq.
The major EU countries have been the
most vocal against Iran’s nuclear
program but it is anybody’s guess
whether that will translate to call to
arms. Although, there is at least one
joint exercise between US and UK
forces on
invasion of Iran. More
importantly, the effects of a new war
on the US economy, which is already
stuttering and only now beginning to
recover, and the consequent collateral
damage to world economy has to be
colossal.
Although the impact on the rest of the
world will be huge, there are strong
indications that Iran is desperately
looking for direct conversation with
the US. The Washington Post quoted
unnamed US Government sources that
Iran has sent strong messages for
dialogue through several prominent
intermediaries. These include UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan,
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Direct El Baradei, and diplomatic
channels of Indonesia and Kuwait.
Tehran-based analysts conclude that
the Iranians realize that the impact
on Iran will be so immense that its
whole civilization and populations may
be decimated beyond recognition.
Prominent American leaders such as influential
Senator John McCain have been urging
the US to talk to Iran directly. Many
analysts and policy makers are also
talking about involving Iran to bring
a
reasonable
conclusion to Iraq.
It is important that the US actively
engage Iran in conversation over its
nuclear program and Iraq to reduce
possibilities of war and global
instability. It is also essential that
Russia and China counsel Iran to
exercise more restraint and engage the
US in meaningful discussions.
|
