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The US is actively promoting oil routes that does not depend on Russia in Central Asia is prompting Russia to make counter-moves that may create a "second Cold War." A New York Times report said that Vice President Dick Cheney is visiting Kazakhstan to cozy up to an alleged abusive regime that does not stand by any principles that the US says it does. When asked about the lack of democratic values in that country, Cheney said "I have previously expressed my admiration for what has transpired here in Kazakhstan over the past 15 years, both economic and political." Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev won a 3rd 6-year term in December 2005 with 91% of the votes in a widely believed sham election. Two political opponents have been mysteriously murdered in 6 months. But Kazakhstan produces 1.2 million barrels of oil a day and is expected to produce 3 million barrels per day in 2015.
Central Asia has perhaps has the most unexplored fossil fuel potential and that explains increased American efforts to reduce Russian influence which is strong in philosophy and diplomacy. Geography also plays a huge role in this tactical game that is part of a strategic struggle for energy supremacy. All Central Asian countries need to transit through Russia to the Black Sea or through Russian pipelines through Europe. Apart from Turkmenistan, which can pump natural gas via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the sea, or India, the others can only sell to either Europe or Russia. Except for Kyrgyzstan, none of the others can even reach China.
Thus begins what the Russians are beginning to call the "second Cold War" that involves a depleted Russia with fewer allies and a stronger but deficit-ridden US that is hated by most of the world. The US has systematically worked to pick off Russia's weakest links—Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia serve to block Russian routes to the Baltic Sea, Ukraine reduces dominance over Black Sea, and Kyrgyzstan blocks off access to China from Central Asia. It has already included Latvia into NATO, wooing Ukraine heavily into NATO, and expanding its air force levels in Kyrgyzstan. Russia is countering by withdrawing from all defense partnerships with Ukraine, canceling contracts to Ukraine, deploying sophisticated weapons into Belarus, increasing its force levels in Kyrgyzstan, and greatly overhauling its nuclear arsenal. If Kazakhstan is also co-opted the division between Russia and China over Central Asia is complete.
China has been silently chipping away at American influence in Africa, Asia, weaning away Pakistan from American clutches, getting into major economic partnerships with West Asian nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, developing strong ties with the ultra-communist regimes in South America, while increasing its public defense spending by over 35%.
Russia and China have been cozying up and wooing India into a tripartite alliance to reduce the American dominance. They are also working together through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to create a framework on regional and Central Asian security. That is why Kyrgyzstan is important for the US-- to block Central Asian access to the Xingjian Province and therefore denying energy to China.
India is a wildcard in this reenactment of the Great Game. Russia and China have openly invited India to be part of this trilateral partnership to counter US domination. They have granted India an observer status in the SCO and have agreed to conduct a joint military exercise along the lines of the Russia-Sino exercises in 2005. India has agreed to the military exercises but is humming and hawing on the trilateral block. India is involved in a strategic dialogue with the US, Russia, and China and the one with the US get the most popular attention and most intellectual suspicion.
Most Indian businesses want positive
Indo-US relations to take their business plans further. Most Indian academicians and researcher want better Indo-US relations to further research, scientific cooperation, and access to technology. Many Indian students continue to aspire to study in the US and experience educational and thought freedom long denied in India. Many Indian defense decision makers want a closer interaction with the US in naval co-operation, air force collaboration, and joint army exercises.
Even if India were to forgive and forget decades of technology denial, economic strangulation, overt military and economic support for Pakistan, ignoring of Pakistani terror-strategy as long as it is not affected, humiliating treatment of visa seekers, there are lingering questions about the US. Most Indians feel that despite the natural implied affinity of the two nations, the US plays for itself. Most Indian writers say that the US will use India the way it used Pakistan to fight the Russians, China for economic benefits, and post-Cold War Russia to woo erstwhile Soviet block nations. Many policy and opinion makers are worried about the capacity for India to make independent decisions. They point out collateral pressure on Iran, Syria, South American nations, Cuba, Israel, etc.
India has some tough decision making ahead. A weak Congress-led coalition Government with strong retrograde allies does not allow enough elbowroom for balanced decisions. Communists have shown a great comeback in recent elections in West Bengal and Kerala where they traditionally have a solid base. However, in the case of Kerala, the communist parties ousted the Congress and they will use that to rub their philosophy into the open wounds of the coalition.
With such hard decisions to make, the Government may find itself much less policy space compressed as it is with its coalition partners on the one hand and global events on the other.
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