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As
election fever rages in Eastern and
Southern states, there is increased
speculation on the outcomes and its
consequences. Almost all analysts
believe that the Congress will be
further weakened wherever it fought
alone. Even in states where they
partner, its share of that partnership
is small.
Therefore,
there is increased speculation on what
the consequences would be to the
national government as a result of a
weakened Congress. The Congress
depends on four props for its federal
government—the communist parties,
the Samajwadi Party (SP), the
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Ram
Vilas Paswan’s Lok Shakthi (LS), and
a coalition of convenience from Tamil
Nadu led by the Dravida Munnetra
Kazhagam (DMK).
The
Communists attack the federal
government on foreign and economic
policy. The SP embarrassed by the
“office of profit” issue [Insert
news analysis] wants to promote itself
and seek revenge on the Congress for
its lack of support to stop the ouster
of its candidate. The RJD and LS are
out of running in Bihar; bereft of
their financial base, they are
actively seeking self-propagation
through beneficial accommodation,
which the government is finding harder
to supply. The only partner not
attacking it yet is the Tamil Nadu
alliance because of the necessity to
keep Congress in an alliance to oust
the isolated All India Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in the
upcoming elections. |
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If
the Congress does badly in the summer state-level
elections as it is expected to, its position as the
leader of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
running the Federal Government will be further
weakened.
The
BJP has signaled its willingness to support the
Congress if it gives up its policy of “minorityism.”
Essentially, both parties have identical economic,
foreign, fiscal, health, environment, trade, etc
policies. However, their social policies are different
because of the compulsions of their coalition. Driven
by Vishwa Hindu Parishad, BJP coasted into power on
its “Ram Mandir” plank. Supported by Shiv Sena,
which has possibly the most rabid anti-Muslim outlook,
the BJP has been seen as an anti-Muslim party.
Further, extremists in the BJP have worried many
nationalists on the true agenda of the BJP and greatly
weakened the image of moderates in the party.
However,
moderates within the BJP have assiduously tried to
guide the party into the middle path away from “Ram
Mandir” plank, anti-Muslim image, and more into a
right of center development agenda. These moves have
caused numerous dissensions within the party leading
to suspensions, estrangement of allies such as the VHP
and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and lack of
ground-level organizational support. These erosions
have perhaps guided former BJP Chief L.K. Advani to
return to the “Ram Mandir” message but also sent a
mixed message to Congress on alliance.
Hence,
there is speculation whether the Congress will seek an
alliance with the BJP and run the federal government.
While the ingredient are there and such an alliance
would benefit the nation and keep it from the clutches
of parties that will strip it bare, it is very
unlikely that such an alliance will transpire or even
survive—unless of course there is a sea change in
attitudes, expectations, behavior, and feeling for the
nation. |
