|
Co-author of the study University of Toronto Public Health
Sciences Professor Prabhat Jha that was carried in the
UK based Lancet, said that for the first time,
there is some concrete data available to base their
estimates. Extracting data from antenatal or Sexually
Transmitted Disease (STD) clinics in the 4 Southern
and 14 North Indian States, the study looked at a
sample size of 294,000 women and 59,000 men.
In the Southern States, the study found 1.7% of women in
the age group 15-24 and 1.1% of the men in age group
20-29 infected. The relative decline is 36% from past
guesstimate figures. Unfortunately, there is no
decline in numbers for corresponding populations in
the North.
What is not clear is whether the study set a new baseline
data or whether there really is a decline. If the
original numbers themselves are guesstimates, then it
is not apparent how the authors are claiming a
decrease in numbers. It is possible that the original
numbers for South India were inflated in the first
place and that the South, with relatively higher broad
based prosperity, higher education levels, and a bit
more culture were less likely to use sex-workers or at
least have unsafe sex.
In any event, this study is an excellent start of
documenting and analyzing figures. So far,
Governmental figures were just feel-good numbers
without any concrete plan. Only independent analysis
from statistically significant samples collected in a
methodical manner can help India understand the impact
of this epidemic. And, only better understanding will
help India formulate and implement policy to
effectively combat it.
|
